2026: The Year Europe Must Confront Hard Choices on Defence, Unity and US Relations

The European Union enters 2026 facing what analysts describe as a "perfect storm" of geopolitical challenges that will test the bloc's unity, economic resilience, and security architecture.

Multiple Fronts of Pressure

According to the Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks report published on January 5, almost all major global risks in 2026 hit Europe at its weakest points. The combination of Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, an increasingly transactional United States under President Trump, and China's economic pressures will force difficult decisions that European leaders have long postponed.

US-Europe Relations at a Crossroads

Trump's return to the White House has fundamentally altered transatlantic dynamics. Washington's pivot toward its own hemisphere and focus on China means growing demands on European allies to shoulder a greater share of the defense burden. This threatens to shorten the timeline-previously considered a decade or longer-for Europe to develop autonomous security capabilities.

"Distraught European leaders will fail to address structural political and economic problems, fueling populist threats," the Eurasia Group warns. "Both Russia and the US will support illiberal, nationalist parties across Europe."

Defence Spending Imperative

European defence readiness will be tested more than at any point since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Germany's new government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has committed to making the country "the strongest conventional army in Europe," with plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

However, delivering on green and digital transitions while simultaneously ramping up military spending will stretch European budgets and political consensus.

Internal Political Fragility

National elections loom in several member states in 2026, including Hungary, the bloc's most persistent obstacle to unity. Far-right parties made gains in the 2024 European Parliament elections across France, Germany, and Italy, and this momentum shows no signs of abating.

Dutch Perspective

The Netherlands faces its own political transition, with the incoming government needing to balance climate ambitions with defence commitments. As a founding EU and NATO member, Dutch leadership on European solidarity remains crucial in the year ahead.